Nearly half of Californians will be obese by 2030 if they don't change their eating habits and start exercising, according to a report released Tuesday that offers a state-by-state analysis of the country's weighty future.
That would mark a significant increase from the state's 2011 obesity rate of 23.8 percent but, even with that, California's ranking as the 46th fattest state in the country is not expected to change.
The report, "F as in Fat," released by the Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, builds upon state-specific data released this year by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The report takes that data and projects two decades into the future what obesity's toll will take on states, disease status and health costs.
"By the year 2030, at least 44 percent of adults in every state of the country could be obese," said Jeffrey Levi, the executive director of Trust for America's Health, a nonprofit health advocacy group. "The potential rise in health-related problems associated with obesity and the rise in health care costs could be staggering."
About 35.7 percent of American adults and 16.9 percent of children between the ages of 2 and 19 are obese, according to the federal statistics.
Obesity is typically defined as having a body mass index, or BMI, of over 30. That standard is calculated by taking a person's weight in pounds, dividing it by the square of height in inches and multiplying that figure by 703.
Big jump in disease
The report projects that if the country continues on the current track, America could be grappling with 6 million new cases of Type 2 diabetes, the kind most closely tied to weight. There will be 5 million new cases of coronary heart disease and stroke, and more than 400,000 new cases of cancer associated with obesity over the next two decades.
In terms of costs, that increasing burden of illness is expected to add between $48 billion and $66 billion a year in direct medical expenses related to obesity to the current annual U.S. estimate of $147 billion to $210 billion.
In California, obesity-related health costs could climb by more than 15.7 percent by 2030, which would be the 22nd highest increase in the country.
The Golden State today is hardly the fattest state in the country.
That distinction goes to Mississippi, which continues to lead the nation with an obesity rate of 34.9 percent. California ranks 46th while Coloradans are the slimmest in the country with an obesity rate of 20.7 percent.
"People are more conscious of health concerns here than in certain areas of the nation," said Dr. Wayne Smith, chief of physical medicine and co-director of Kaiser Permanente San Jose's medical weight management program.
But Smith warns that California is becoming more like the rest of the country and he views these numbers as a wake-up call.
'We can change'
"This is not our future. We can change. But this is one possible future if we don't act," Smith said.
The reported offered the hope that relatively incremental change could translate into huge savings. For example, it calculated that if Californians were to lower BMIs by just 5 percent, that state could save 7.5 percent of health costs or $81 billion by 2030.
Dr. Kristine Madsen, an assistant professor at UC Berkeley's School of Public Health, said she's seen encouraging signs that people are getting the message about obesity. For instance, she said, her patients are consuming fewer sugary drinks.
Also, a report released last year by the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and the California Center for Public Health Advocacy found a 1.1 percent drop in the percentage of obese or overweight fifth-, seventh- and ninth-graders in 2010 in California compared to 2005. That was the first decrease in 30 years.
Still, said Madsen, who is also assistant professor of pediatrics at UCSF, these studies show the state still has a long way to go. "Our obesity rates have tripled over three decades, so a dent of 1 percent is not getting us back to where we need to be," she said.
The future of obesity
If obesity rates continue on their current trajectories, by 2030:
-- 13 states could have adult obesity rates above 60 percent. Mississippi is projected to have the highest rate at 66.7 percent.
-- Nine states could see obesity-related health costs climb by more than 20 percent. New Jersey is expected to lead the pack at 34.5 percent.
-- California, which ranks 46th in obesity, could see its rate double from 23.8 percent to 46.6 percent.
To view the report, "F as in Fat," go here: healthyamericans.org or rwjf.org
Sources: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation; Trust for America's Health
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