The numbers on Michigan's bathroom scales continue to spin upward -- setting up Michiganders for an explosion of diseases related to obesity and possibly costing the state more than $22 billion in additional health care by 2030, according to a new report.
Michigan is now the fifth-fattest state in the nation, according to the newest "F as in Fat" report by the Trust for America's Health.
That means soaring costs in Michigan -- as much as 19% by 2030 -- associated with increasing rates of Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure and arthritis.
"It's scary," said Gwen Imes, who oversees the nutrition, physical activity and obesity section for the Michigan Department of Community Health. "It's not only about the quality of life for those people, but also the overall health of the state. What happens to our state if we have so many people who ... are plagued with these types of diseases?"
An estimated 31.3% of Michiganders are obese, compared with 13.2% in 1991.
And if that weight gain continues, 59.4% of the state -- 3 in 5 Michiganders -- will be obese by 2030.
That means more than jiggly bellies and movie theater seats that suddenly seem too small.
Diabetes cases, for example, are expected to jump from 861,006 to a total of more than 2.2 million; heart and stroke cases will jump from an estimated 601,065 to nearly 3.5 million.
Sleep apnea, which increases with weight, also contributes to those health problems, according to the report.
Even cancer cases are expected to increase -- from 150,809 estimated cases now to more than 546,000 by 2030.
Doctors aren't sure of the precise connection between fat and cancer, but they believe that the extra pounds place the bodies in a state of constant inflammation, circulating certain proteins in response, said Dr. Max Wicha, director of the University of Michigan Comprehensive Cancer Center.
Those proteins, he said, "directly stimulate cancer growth" and can lead to a whole host of other diseases including Alzheimer's disease.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers an adult with a body mass index of 30 or higher as obese. Roughly, that means a 5-foot-9 person weighing 203 or more pounds is considered obese.
Doctors caution, however, that weight is a rough number and doesn't necessarily translate to good or bad health.
In other words, a heavy person may be muscular and have better health measures than a thin, sickly person.
For the report, analysts drew from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, an ongoing health survey established by the CDC.
Michigan's ranking in the past has hovered around 10th, but a different reporting method this year snagged cell phone users from across the U.S. -- believed to be a more accurate picture, said Jeff Levi, executive director of the trust -- pushing Michigan to fifth.
Also for the first time this year, analysts looked at projected health care costs, using past trends as well as formulas that account for different levels of obesity and the related risks, said Levi.
Dr. Steve Hendrick wasn't surprised at the projections.
As a bariatric surgeon at Detroit Medical Center's Harper University Hospital, he said he has seen younger and younger patients over the past decade.
"We have an epidemic on our hands," he said. "Weight is a difficult thing. It's not as easy as 'Put down your fork. Push yourself from the table, and go to the gym.' "
Both he and Wicha said the rush of the daily grind -- the anxious feeling of always trying to catch up -- has Americans turning to fast food and away from the gym.
There's something else: Residents in the heftiest states have lost sight of what's healthy, Hendrick said.
"Because so many people are becoming overweight, it's becoming more socially accepted. People don't see themselves as fat," he said.
That notion of what's normal impacts what we put on the dinner table, said Imes, at the state health department.
Restaurants offer ever-bigger portions.
Large, calorie-laden drinks with refills have become routine, contributing to the forgotten calories that get packed onto waistlines.
"That's not OK," she said.
The good news: Michigan can save big bucks by shaving off a few pounds.
If the average Michigander shaved 5 points from his or her BMI, the state could save $8 billion a year by 2030, according to the report.
Already, Michigan and other states are making changes at the local and state levels and federal policy has begun to shift, including the new requirements this year that place more-nutritious, less-calorie laden food in school lunch lines.
"It doesn't happen overnight, but we're seeing changes ... We're getting the policies and programs that make a difference," Levi said.
But, he added, those programs need to be more than just talk and rules.
"Having a requirement for PE (gym class) doesn't necessarily translate into having PE," he said.
The report is financed by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, a Princeton, N.J.-based philanthropy focused on health issues.
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