Obesity report predicts staggering weight gain, higher costs for health care - Chicago Tribune

September 18, 2012|By Dawn Turner Trice, Chicago Tribune reporter

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Johnathan McCamey has lost 70 pounds since the beginning of the year by changing his diet and working out regularly. (Phil Velasquez, Chicago Tribune)

Over the last year, residents of Chicago's Brighton Park neighborhood have been working on the community's obesity problem. For starters they conducted a "walk-ability" study and realized that the community would be more walk-able if the lines on several area crosswalks were repainted and a viaduct cleaned out.

They even held a 5K walk/run to raise money to renovate the neighborhood's Kelly Park so families could exercise more.

"We feel like we're all in this together," said Sara Reschly, president of the Kelly Park Advisory Council. "If we have any shot at reducing obesity it will take a combined effort of everybody pulling together."

That's one of the main points of a new report released Tuesday that offers sobering projections for an adult obesity rate in the United States that's expected to increase dramatically in Illinois and around the country by 2030.

The report, by Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, estimates that by 2030, all 50 states could have obesity rates above 44 percent. In Illinois, the rate could nearly double from 27.1 percent now to 53.7 percent. Obesity-related health care costs in Illinois could jump more than 16.1 percent.

This is the ninth year that "F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America's Future 2012" has given an annual state-by-state analysis of the country's ever-expanding waistline. But this is the first time the report addresses adult obesity two decades from now.

Along with staggering increases in obesity, the report predicts jumps in related diseases and health care costs.

Nationally, about two-thirds of adults and a third of children are currently overweight. About 35 percent of adults are obese or have a body mass index, or BMI, over 30.

Jeff Levi, executive director of the Trust for America's Health, said the only way to change the country's obesity trajectory is for government, residents, faith-based organizations and the private sector to pull together.

He said that if the projections sound alarmist, consider this: "Since just 1991, most states have gone from being between 10 and 15 percent (for adult obesity) to where we are now, with many above 30 percent."

Levi said that while the trust is keeping an eye on experiments throughout the country aimed at reducing obesity, such as New York's ban last week on large sugary drinks, the organization is stopping short of calling for mandates. Rather, it's looking at what local and state governments can do to remove obstacles so residents can make healthier choices.

"We do know that for kids, one less sugar-sweetened beverage a day can make a big difference in their health," Levi said. "But if you look at the tobacco experience in getting people to quit smoking, the industry was taxed and regulations were used but ultimately the culture had to change."

The reports say that if states decrease average BMI by only 5 percent, every state could spare millions of residents serious health problems such as Type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke, obesity-related cancers and arthritis.

The report estimates that Illinois could save more than $28 billion in 20 years.

But Elissa Bassler, chief executive officer of the nonprofit Illinois Public Health Institute, said it's important to understand that the 5 percent decrease in BMI would only reduce future obesity rates in the state to about 47 percent.

"We would save money and lives, but that in no way eliminates the problem," Bassler said. "We still have very bad health outcomes and health care costs."

This month, the institute launched the "Rethink Your Drink: Healthy Beverage Toolkit for Healthcare." It's a blueprint that hospitals can use to eliminate sugary beverages.

"It's not enough to wag your finger and say eat less and exercise more," Bassler said. "This is such a tremendous problem that it's going to take us changing the social condition rather than telling individuals they don't have the willpower to lose weight."

The report predicts that over the next two decades, 13 states could have rates above 60 percent and 39 states could have rates above 50 percent. Mississippi is on pace to have the highest obesity rate at 66.7 percent, and Colorado would have the lowest at 44.8 percent.

In Illinois, according to the report, obesity could contribute to more than 1.5 million new cases of Type 2 diabetes; more than 3 million new cases of coronary heart disease and stroke; more than 3 million new cases of hypertension; and nearly 500,000 new cases of obesity-related cancer.

The report estimates that across the United States, the cost of treating preventable obesity-related illnesses will increase by $48 billion to $66 billion per year by 2030. Researchers place current costs at $147 billion to nearly $210 billion annually.